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本文以经济周期理论作为理论分析基础,借助MATLAB软件运用函数型数据的表现形式和分析方法,构建了我国建国以来经济增长的周期波动函数,并对周期特征进行重新测算,结果显示基于平滑正弦基函数对经济增长率波动曲线拟合较好,用函数型数据分析方法对经济周期特征的分析与现有的研究结论基本一致,通过拟合经济增长率的离散点可以更准确地判断经济周期,同时发现使用相平面图可以从速度和加速度的角度更直观、更深入、更精确地量化研究经济周期现在及未来的波动情况。本文认为目前中国经济增长处于转型的关键期,笔者对未来经济波动状况持谨慎乐观的态度。
In this paper, the economic cycle theory is the basis of theoretical analysis. By using MATLAB software to represent the form and analysis of functional data, the paper builds the periodic fluctuation function of economic growth since the founding of our country, and re-estimates the periodic characteristics. The results show that based on the smooth sinusoidal basis The function fitting the volatility curve of economic growth rate is better, the analysis of the economic cycle characteristics by functional data analysis method is basically consistent with the existing research conclusion, the economic cycle can be judged more accurately by fitting the discrete points of the economic growth rate, At the same time, we find that the use of phase plan can be more intuitive, deeper and more accurate quantification of the current and future fluctuations in the economic cycle from the perspective of speed and acceleration. This paper argues that at present, China’s economic growth is in a critical period of transformation and I am cautiously optimistic about the future economic fluctuations.