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就业、通胀和经济增长是一个彼此两难全的课题。按照菲律浦斯曲线及有关的宏观经济学原理,一定的经济增长条件下失业率(就业率的逆指标)和通货膨胀率之间往往存在着某种“替代效应”——即提高失业率会压低通胀率,而降低失业率则会拉升通胀率。实质而言,经济增长纯粹是一个经济问题;但就业与通胀则不仅是一个经济问题,更重要的还是一个社会问题。中国的改革开放在获得巨大经济增长成果的同时,也付了就业与通胀方面的沉重代价(主要是旧体制痼疾的释放)。要真正妥善处理好这些关系,必须从供需两方面来考虑。本文以上海为实例,试图以上述三者的数量关系为基点来考察就业对居民消费的影响。 1.一般而言,失业率上升,居民收入相对减少,从而引起居民消费支出的减少;反之,失业率下降,居民收入相对增加,从而引起居民消费支出也有所增加。但是在上海的城镇失业率与城市居民消费变动关系中,总体上并没有产生这种此消彼长的逆向效应;相反,两者还呈一定的同向上升态势。1981～1995年,上海城镇失业率与城市居民人
Employment, inflation and economic growth are two difficult issues. According to the Phillips curve and related macroeconomic principles, there is often some “substitution effect” between the unemployment rate (the inverse of employment rate) and the inflation rate under certain economic growth conditions - that is, the unemployment rate is increased Will lower the inflation rate, while reducing the unemployment rate will boost the inflation rate. In essence, economic growth is purely an economic issue; however, employment and inflation are not only an economic issue but, more importantly, a social issue. While China’s reform and opening up achieved tremendous economic growth, it also paid a heavy price in terms of employment and inflation (mainly the release of chronic illness). To really properly handle these relations, we must consider both supply and demand. Taking Shanghai as an example, this paper attempts to examine the employment impact on resident consumption based on the quantitative relationship among the three. 1. Generally speaking, the unemployment rate has risen and the income of residents has decreased. As a result, the consumption expenditure of residents has been reduced. On the contrary, the unemployment rate has dropped and the income of residents has increased. As a result, consumer spending has also risen. However, in Shanghai, the relationship between urban unemployment rate and urban residents’ consumption change generally did not produce such countervailing effect. On the contrary, both of them showed a certain upward trend in the same direction. From 1981 to 1995, Shanghai urban unemployment rate and urban residents