在建筑工程施工中,由临时结构的破坏所引起的工程事故屡见不鲜。有时仅仅因为临时结构中个别主要杆件失事,就使支持永久结构工程的整个鹰架分崩离析,从而导致结构工程的倒塌。但是,从工程实践和调查资料看来,临时结构的破坏是完全可以避免的,关键是事前的分析和鉴定。本文介绍一种称为“事件树分析”的方法,它以“事件树”为工具,利用模糊概率预测和评价临时结构的安全度,为质量控制提供科学依据。一、临时结构及其破坏原因 In construction projects, accidents caused by the destruction of temporary structures are not uncommon. Sometimes because of the failure of individual major parts of the temporary structure, the entire scaffold supporting the permanent structural engineering was disintegrated, resulting in structural engineering collapse. However, from the perspective of engineering practice and survey data, the destruction of temporary structures is completely avoidable. The key is the prior analysis and identification. This article introduces a method called “event tree analysis”. It uses the “event tree” as a tool to use fuzzy probability to predict and evaluate the safety of temporary structures and provide scientific basis for quality control. I. Temporary Structure and Causes of Damage