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由于全球经济危机导致的外部需求的骤减,2009年中国对外出口有可能出现零增长或微增长;中国的消费增长也开始出现小幅回落; 2009年中国的GDP增长形势不乐观。估计2009年中国经济仍处于下行通道。需求回落使企业的利润率水平继续下降,上市公司业绩增速将进一步放缓至3%,虽然目前许多行业2009年的业绩一致预期还呈现正增长,但是相比2008年而言增速多有下降;更重要的是,2009年业绩预期的向下修正只是刚刚开始。
Due to the drastic reduction of external demand caused by the global economic crisis, China’s foreign exports are likely to show zero or slight growth in 2009; the growth of consumption in China started to decline slightly; and the GDP growth in China in 2009 was not optimistic. It is estimated that in 2009 China’s economy is still in a downward spiral. The drop in demand will continue to reduce the profitability of enterprises, and the performance growth of listed companies will further slow to 3%. Although the performance of many industries is still expected to show positive growth in 2009, the growth rate is much higher than in 2008 More importantly, the downward revision of the performance forecast for 2009 is just the beginning.