伊拉克战争走向尾声。在国际金融市场,随着战争引起的不确定性渐行渐远,主要货币的波动幅度逐渐缩减,并向其原有基本面决定的运行轨迹复归。在实体经济领域,这场战争将如何影响美国经济进而作用于世界经济增长呢?对于这个问题的回答,必须以对美国经济自身周期性波动规律的充分认识以及对于美伊战争影响的准确把握为基本出发点。一、美国经济周期性波动规律美伊战争爆发前,美国经济处于新世纪第一轮经济衰退的复苏阶段。根据美国著名的经济政策研究机构——国民经济研究局(NBER)在2001年11月作出的判断,美国经济在2001年3月达到1991年3月以 The war in Iraq came to an end. In the international financial markets, with the uncertainty caused by the war drifting away, the volatility of the major currencies has gradually diminished and its return to the track of its original fundamentals has been restored. In the field of real economy, how will this war affect the U.S. economy and then its role in world economic growth? The answer to this question must be based on a full understanding of the law of periodic fluctuations in the U.S. economy and the accurate grasp of the impact of the U.S.- The basic starting point. First, the cyclical fluctuations in the U.S. economy Before the outbreak of the U.S.-Iraq war, the U.S. economy was in the recovery phase of the first round of economic recession in the new century. According to a judgment made by the National Institute of Economic Research (NBER) in November 2001, a famous U.S. economic policy research institute, the U.S. economy reached the level of March 1991 by March 2001