人们在估计任务的完成时间时,存在着倾向于过度乐观地低估任务完成时间的一种现象,叫作规划谬误。基于人格特质的研究表明,规划谬误基本不存在个体差异。研究者们还进一步验证,在群体协商估计任务的完成时间时,同样存在着乐观地估计任务完成时间的群体规划谬误。规划谬误不仅是对任务的完成时间的低估,还存在着对任务的成本、风险的低估,以及对任务收益的高估。比如悉尼歌剧院,工程比预期推迟 When people estimate the completion time of a task, there is a phenomenon that tends to over-optimistically underestimate the task completion time, which is called the planning fallacy. Research based on personality traits shows that there are basically no individual differences in planning fallacies. The researchers also further verify that there is also a paradox of group planning that optimistically estimates the task completion time when group negotiation estimates the completion of the task. Planning fallacies not only underestimate the completion time of the task, but also the cost of the task, the risk of underestimation, and the overestimation of the mission benefits. For example, Sydney Opera House, the project was postponed than expected