选用四川省有代表性的5个县(忠县、双流、宜宾、武胜、资中)11年3月份气象因素和小麦穗期蚜虫发生程度资料,运用模糊综合决策方法,建立了预测模型,用预测因子回代,历史符合率达94.12％;1991～1994年,5个县市实际预测符合率为75.00％。证明该模型对预测小麦穗期蚜虫发生程度有较好效果。 Based on the meteorological factors and the incidence of aphids in wheat heading stage in 5 representative counties (Zhongxian, Shuangliu, Yibin, Wusheng and Zizhong) of Sichuan Province in March of this year, the fuzzy comprehensive decision-making method was used to establish the prediction model The predictive factor was replaced and the historical coincidence rate reached 94.12%. From 1991 to 1994, the actual coincidence rate of the 5 counties and cities was 75.00%. It is proved that the model is effective in predicting the occurrence of aphids in wheat heading stage.