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中国铁路在1997—2007年间进行了六次大规模的全国性提速。铁路客运量由此得到巨大增长,而公路客运则受到巨大冲击。在公路与铁路客运优劣势比较的基础上,分析了铁路提速对公路客运的短期和长期影响。发现虽然铁路提速对公路客运在短期存在诸多负面影响,但是从长期来看影响不大。并在此基础上提出了克服不利影响的政策建议。
China Railway carried out six large-scale nationwide speedups from 1997 to 2007. As a result, there has been a huge increase in the volume of railway passenger transport, while the road passenger transport has suffered a tremendous impact. On the basis of comparison of advantages and disadvantages between highway and railway passenger transport, the short-term and long-term impact of railway speed-raising on highway passenger transport are analyzed. It is found that although railway speed-raising has many negative impacts on highway passenger transport in the short term, it has little effect in the long run. Based on this, we put forward policy suggestions to overcome the adverse effects.