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笔者在七十年代末期用122—245个已知产量品系研究产量苗期预测方法,提出1龄时采用小叶柄胶法和叶脉胶法预测,其成龄树的高产品系选对率较高,低产品系误选率低。这两种方法对未知产量品系预测准确度如何?经过十一年的试验和对其成龄树进行三年产量鉴定,可以初步看出:小叶柄胶法高产品系的选对率为74.2％,高产品系漏选率11.5％;低产品系的误选率8.9％;1龄苗小叶柄胶值与其成龄树割胶头三年平均产量的相关达极显著水准,r=0.6926**(n=90)。叶脉胶法高产品系的选对率为51.6％;高产品系漏选率29.2％,低产品系的误选率为18.6％;1龄苗叶脉胶等级与其成龄树头三割年平均产量的相关亦呈极显著水准,r=0.3293**(n=84)。两种预测方法的精确度与已知产量品系的预测结果基本一致。
In the late seventies, we used 122-245 known yield lines to study the seedling yield forecasting method. It was suggested that the application of the petiole gum method and the Vein Gel method in the first instar period could be used to predict the yield of the high-yielding aged tree , Low product error rate is low. What are the accuracy of these two methods in predicting the yield of unknown yield? After 11 years of testing and identification of three years of its growing tree, it can be initially seen that the selection rate of the high yield of the petiole glue method is 74.2% , The rate of missed selection of high-yielding products was 11.5%, that of low-yielding products was 8.9%, the correlation between the value of first-year seedling petiole and the average yield of three-year average age of the tree cutting adhesive reached an extremely significant level, r = 0.6926 ** n = 90). The selection rate of the high-yielding lines of Vein gel method was 51.6%; the rate of missed selection of high-yielding lines was 29.2% and that of the low-yielding lines was 18.6%; the average of the three-year average yield The correlation also showed a very significant level, r = 0.3293 ** (n = 84). The accuracy of the two prediction methods is basically the same as the prediction results of known yield strains.