在当前世界经济非常困难的时期,各国中央银行都在降低利率投放货币,实施量化宽松的货币政策。尤其是美联储推出QE3等货币政策举措,引起我国理论界的高度关注。从媒体的信息来看,大多数人认为,美联储的政策将会导致大宗商品价格上涨,将给我国带来输入性的通货膨胀。我对这种看法不认同,仅从逻辑分析作出的判断过于简单,往往与实际情况不符合。实证分析大宗农产品和工业品价格大幅变动和货币的相关关系,结论非常明确:没有一次大宗商品价格的重大变 At a time when the current world economy is in a very difficult situation, central banks of all countries are lowering their interest rates to run the currency and implement the quantitative easing monetary policy. In particular, the Fed launched the QE3 and other monetary policy initiatives, causing great concern to our theoretical community. From the media’s point of view, most people think that the policy of the Federal Reserve will lead to the rise of commodity prices and will bring imported inflation to our country. I disagree with this view. Judgments made only from the logical analysis are too simple and often do not correspond with the actual situation. Empirical analysis of the substantial changes in the prices of bulk agricultural and industrial products and the correlation between currencies, the conclusion is very clear: there is no significant change in commodity prices