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红原县冬春两季雪灾发生频繁,对当地畜牧业生产危害极大。本文通过分析2004~2013年10次典型的雪灾记录,用线性回归分析的方法比较雪灾前一年、前一月、前十日和前五日各气象因子与降雪量的相关关系,确定了雪灾前十日的气象因子与降雪量的相关性最大,其R2=0.98。雪灾前十日气象因子及其变化直接关系到雪灾的发生和严重程度。利用主成分分析近30年的118次典型降雪记录,结果表明:Xc3(雪灾前十日日均最低温度)、Xc2(雪灾前十日平均温度)、Xc10(雪灾前十日最高温度变化)、Xc7(雪灾前十日日均日照时数)、Xc11(雪灾前十日风速的变化)和Xc4(雪灾前十日平均最高温度)是6个主成分。此结果对建立雪灾前气候判别及预警等应用模型都有重要的意义。
The occurrence of winter and spring snowstorms in Hongyuan County is frequent, which is very harmful to the local livestock husbandry production. This paper analyzes 10 typical snow disaster records from 2004 to 2013 and compares the correlation between the meteorological factors and snowfall in the previous year, the previous month, the first ten days and the fifth day before the snow storm by linear regression analysis to determine the snow disaster The meteorological factors of the first ten days have the highest correlation with snowfall, with R2 = 0.98. The meteorological factors and their changes ten days before the snowstorm are directly related to the occurrence and severity of the snowstorm. The principal component analysis of 118 typical snowfall records over the past 30 years showed that Xc3 (average daily minimum temperature of the first ten days before snowstorm), Xc2 (average temperature ten days before snowstorm), Xc10 (maximum temperature change ten days before snowstorm) The Xc7 (average daily sunshine duration on the tenth day before a snowstorm), Xc11 (changes in the wind speed ten days before a snowstorm) and Xc4 (average daily maximum temperature on the tenth day before a snowstorm) are the six principal components. This result is of great significance to establishing a pre-snow climate discriminant and early warning application model.