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为研究影响建筑安全的因素,探讨科学的建筑安全监管策略,在建筑企业与政府安全监管部门具有有限理性的前提下,建立建筑安全监管的演化博弈模型。对稳定状态的分析表明,模型并不总是存在演化稳定策略。在此基础上,建立系统动力学模型,借助数据仿真分析不同变量对建筑安全状况的动态影响。研究结果表明,奖惩力度、监管失误率、监管成本、安全投入、惩罚机制等因素的变化对建筑安全状况产生影响。建筑安全长效监管可从加大对监管部门的奖惩力度、减少监管部门的监管失误率、降低建筑安全监管成本、合理控制安全措施投入、设计合理的建筑企业惩罚机制等方面着手。
In order to study the factors that affect the building safety, this paper discusses the scientific construction safety supervision strategy and establishes the evolutionary game model of building safety supervision under the limited rationality of construction enterprises and government safety supervision departments. Analysis of the steady state shows that there is not always an evolutionarily stable strategy for the model. On this basis, the establishment of system dynamics model, with the help of data simulation analysis of different variables on the dynamic impact of building safety status. The results show that the changes of factors such as reward and punishment, supervision failure rate, supervision cost, safety investment and punishment mechanism have an impact on the construction safety status. The long-term regulation of construction safety can start from increasing rewards and punishments to supervision departments, reducing the supervision failure rate of regulatory authorities, reducing the cost of construction safety supervision, rationally controlling the investment in safety measures and designing a reasonable punishment mechanism for construction enterprises.