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西方政策制定者就“多样化不仅能提高经济稳定性,而且有利于实现经济增长和降低失业率的目标”达成广泛共识。但产业多样化是否能有效降低失业,经验研究的结果并不一致。中国产业政策多强调专业化及其所带来的集聚效应与规模效应,对产业多样化关注不多。本文采用2004-2011年我国内地除西藏以外的30个省区市的面板数据,检验了中国情境下产业多样化对就业增长与就业波动的影响。研究发现:全国范围内产业多样化水平呈降低趋势;产业多样化对区域就业增长有正向影响;多样化对降低就业波动无明显作用。在研究结论的基础上,提出相应对策。
Western policymakers reached a broad consensus that “diversification will not only increase economic stability but also help achieve economic growth and reduce unemployment.” However, if industrial diversification can effectively reduce unemployment, empirical research results are not consistent. How to emphasize the specialization of industrial policies in China and the agglomeration effect and scale effect they bring, and pay little attention to the diversification of industries. In this paper, the panel data of 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities other than Tibet in the Mainland of China from 2004 to 2011 are used to test the impact of industrial diversification on employment growth and employment fluctuation in China. The results show that: the level of industrial diversification has been declining; the diversification of industries has a positive impact on the employment growth in the region; and diversification has no obvious effect on reducing employment volatility. On the basis of the conclusion of the study, we put forward corresponding countermeasures.