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基于区域自然灾害系统理论,根据2000-2009年10年间的生产资料和经济统计数据,构建了天然橡胶种植业灾害脆弱性评价指标体系,运用数学模型,对不同时间尺度下海南各市县天然橡胶种植业的灾害脆弱性进行定量评估。研究结果表明:10年来,海南省各市县天然橡胶种植业灾害脆性总体上呈现降低趋势,但空间差异性显著;多数市县灾害适应性和敏感性均呈现增强趋势,各市县灾害敏感性变化应引起关注。结合评价结果,分析了形成灾害脆弱性动态变化的种植环境因素和社会经济因素,并针对如何降低灾害脆弱性提出建议。
Based on the theory of regional natural disasters, according to the means of production and economic statistics during the 10 years from 2000 to 2009, an index system for evaluating the vulnerability of natural rubber plantations was constructed. Mathematical models were used to evaluate the natural rubber plantations in different cities and counties in Hainan Industry disaster vulnerability quantitative assessment. The results show that: in the past 10 years, the natural rubber plantations in all cities and counties in Hainan Province showed a general trend of decreasing their crises, but their spatial differences were significant; the adaptability and sensitivity of disasters in most cities and districts showed an increasing trend; attract attention. Combined with the evaluation results, the environmental and socio-economic factors for the formation of dynamic changes of disaster vulnerability are analyzed, and suggestions are made on how to reduce the vulnerability of the disaster.