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一月份国际原油价格出现了大幅度反弹,我们认为支持原油价格上涨的因素并没有消除,短期内国际原油价格仍将维持高位,但迅速创出新高的可能性并不大。原油价格的上涨短期内对石化行业的冲击并不大,预计一季度业绩与去年四季度业绩相当。两大主题值得关注。一是中国石化的整合,重点可关注中国石化、上海石化、中原油气等股票。二是二线蓝筹股的股改,重点可关注盐湖钾肥、烟台万华、星新材料、新安股份、三爱富等股票。
In January, the international crude oil prices rebounded sharply. In our opinion, the factors that support the crude oil price increase have not been eliminated. In the short term, the international crude oil prices will remain at high levels. However, the possibility of rapidly reaching new highs is unlikely. Crude oil prices rise in the short term impact on the petrochemical industry is not large, is expected in the first quarter performance and the fourth quarter of last year’s performance. Two major topics deserve attention. First, the integration of Sinopec, the focus can be concerned about Sinopec, Shanghai Petrochemical, Zhongyuan Oil and other stocks. Second, share reform of second-line blue-chip stocks, the focus may be concerned about Salt Lake Potash, Yantai Wanhua, Star New Materials, shares of Xin’an, Three Love and other stocks.