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本文通过构建石油价格与汇率机制改革的双虚拟变量协整及误差修正模型,研究汇率波动与石油价格变化对我国经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:GDP与物价水平、消费、石油价格和汇率之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系;石油价格上涨与汇率升值对我国GDP具有显著的负效应;石油价格及汇率改革显著地影响石油价格与汇率对经济增长的效应。因此,本文深入分析石油价格与汇率波动对我国经济增长的影响,以期为促进我国经济持续、健康的发展提出相应的政策建议。
This paper studies the effects of exchange rate fluctuations and changes in oil prices on China’s economic growth by constructing co-integration and error correction models for the reform of oil price and exchange rate regimes. The results show that there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between GDP and price level, consumption, oil price and exchange rate; oil price and exchange rate appreciation have significant negative effect on China’s GDP; oil price and exchange rate reform significantly affect oil price Effect of exchange rate on economic growth. Therefore, this article deeply analyzes the impact of oil price and exchange rate fluctuations on China’s economic growth, with a view to put forward corresponding policy recommendations for promoting the sustained and healthy development of our economy.