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鉴于水资源脆弱性评价等级标准中存在很多不确定性因素,从内部自然承载和外部压力驱动两个角度出发,构建水资源脆弱性综合评价指标体系,同时结合SPA和灰色聚类法理论,以灰色聚类系数代替对应的联系度分量,引入灰色三角白化权函数处理等级标准中的不确定性信息,并综合考虑主客观因素,计算指标权重,提出灰色三角白化权SPA模型,将其运用到某市的脆弱性综合评估中。评价结果显示,某市2014年评价等级为较不脆弱,与实际情况一致,可见优化后的模型能更好地处理等级标准中的不确定性信息;该市应在积极制定水资源管理条例,避免水资源量过度开采的同时,加大对河流水污染的治理强度,以改善水质,恢复良好的水生生态系统。
Considering that there are many uncertain factors in the assessment standards of water resources vulnerability, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of water resources vulnerability from two aspects of internal natural bearing and external pressure. Combined with SPA and gray clustering theory, Gray clustering coefficient instead of the corresponding degree of connection component, introducing the gray triangle whitening weight function processing level of uncertainty in the standard, and considering the subjective and objective factors, calculate the index weight, proposed gray triangular whitening right SPA model, apply it to A city’s comprehensive assessment of vulnerability. The evaluation results show that the rating of a city in 2014 is relatively weak, which is consistent with the actual situation. It can be seen that the optimized model can better deal with the uncertainty information in the grade standard. The city should actively formulate regulations on water resources management, To avoid excessive exploitation of water resources at the same time, increase the intensity of river water pollution control to improve water quality and restore good aquatic ecosystems.