以群组动力学为视角,本文将博客用户群划分为未知组群、易感组群、传播组群及免疫组群,建立了基于USIR的博客舆情话题传播模型。与之前的研究相比,该模型并不依赖于任何个体实证参数。仿真结果表明,该模型可以真实地描述博客网络中的舆情话题传播规律,并具有较好的预测性能。 From the perspective of group dynamics, this paper divides blog users into unknown groups, susceptible groups, spread groups and immune groups, and establishes a blog public opinion topic propagation model based on USIR. Compared with previous studies, the model does not depend on any individual empirical parameters. The simulation results show that the model can truly describe the rule of public opinion topic propagation in blogging network and has good predictive performance.