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传统的极限平衡法在确定的计算工况下要求抗剪强度参数为常数,但由于各种参数的随机性、测试的误差、地质体的不均匀性、外界因素变化的随机性等特点,对滑坡稳定性评价起主要作用的抗剪强度参数从严格意义上来说均是随时间变化的随机变量,这就需要用破坏概率模型等非传统方法对滑坡进行稳定性评价。破坏概率模型的关键是滑坡抗剪强度参数的概率分布函数,但是在实际工程中,由于试验数据太少无法准确确定抗剪强度参数概率分布函数。本文提出了以区域统计规律得出的概率分布函数为先验分布函数,然后用推广Bayes方法确定该滑坡的概率分布函数,并以里沱河滑坡为例用破坏概率模型对其进行稳定性评价。
The traditional limit equilibrium method requires the shear strength parameter to be constant under certain calculation conditions. However, due to the randomness of various parameters, the error of the test, the heterogeneity of the geological body and the randomness of the change of external factors, The shear strength parameters that play a major role in the evaluation of landslide stability are strictly random variables that change with time. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the stability of the landslide by non-traditional methods, such as the failure probability model. The key to failure probability model is the probability distribution function of shear strength parameters of landslide, but in practical engineering, the probability distribution function of shear strength parameters can not be determined accurately because of too few test data. In this paper, the probability distribution function derived from the regional statistical law is taken as the prior distribution function, and then the Bayesian method is used to determine the probability distribution function of the landslide. The landslide is taken as an example to assess the stability of the landslide using the failure probability model .