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2011年4月国内外天然橡胶市场走势步调基本一致,呈现冲高回落的格局,且下跌速度和幅度均较大,沪胶和日胶指数最终月度跌幅都超过8%。国际原油价格的坚挺走势未能对天然橡胶市场形成提振,沪胶指数更是创出了调整以来的新低,技术图形上已经形成第3浪下跌。5月的市场环境并没有太大的改善,天然橡胶市场的压力主要体现在对消费量的担忧、产量增长以及流动性收紧的货币政策。综合来看,天然橡胶市场走势中期走弱的格局还没有改变,筑底的过程仍将漫长,但存在短期反弹需求,预计5月的沪胶市场走势可能依旧呈现震荡略偏弱,沪胶指数下方支撑位在30000元,上方压力位在35000元。
In April 2011, the market trend of natural rubber both at home and abroad was basically the same, showing a pattern of going down high and falling more rapidly and with a larger amplitude. The final monthly drops of Hujiao and Japan Plastic Index all exceeded 8%. The strong trend of international crude oil prices failed to boost the natural rubber market. The Hujiao Index hit a new low since the adjustment, and the third wave has dropped in the technical graph. The market environment in May did not improve much. The pressure on the natural rubber market is mainly reflected in concerns about consumption, increased output and tightened liquidity monetary policy. Taken together, the natural rubber market trend has not changed the medium-term weakness, the end of the process will remain long, but there is a short-term rebound demand is expected May Hujiao market trend may still appear slightly weaker shocks, the Hujiao Index Below the support at 30,000 yuan, above the pressure at 35,000 yuan.