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长期来看,TPP必定会冲击亚太地区现有贸易格局,带动全球要素域内集中和循环,使域外国家遭受损失。中国产业安全观正由侧重产业控制向产业竞争能力转变。文章以贸易和资本的转移效应为切入点,结合TPP、TISA与WTO的比较分析,探索新产业安全观下TPP的作用机理。TPP条件下中国产业安全面临着诸多挑战:产品出口受阻,传统产业产能过剩愈发严重;FDI流出,潜在溢出效应减弱;投资环境恶化,产业创新“供血”不足;新兴产业与传统产业承接时差拉大。TPP成员国良好的投资环境将促进中国产业结构有效调整和产业升级,推动三次产业均衡发展。破解TPP条件下中国产业安全困局,应进一步维护和开拓海外自由贸易市场,培育和提高产业创新能力。
In the long run, the TPP will surely impact the existing trade pattern in the Asia Pacific region, drive the concentration and circulation of global elements and damage the countries outside the region. China’s industrial security concept is shifting its focus from industrial control to industrial competitiveness. The paper starts with the transfer effect of trade and capital, and analyzes the mechanism of TPP under the new industrial security concept through the comparative analysis of TPP, TISA and WTO. Under the condition of TPP, China’s industrial security faces many challenges: the export of products is hindered, the excess capacity of traditional industries becomes more and more serious; the outflow of FDI and the potential spillover effect are weakened; the investment environment is deteriorated; the industry is innovated; the “blood supply” is insufficient; the emerging industries and traditional industries undertake Big time lag. The good investment environment of TPP member countries will promote the effective adjustment of industrial structure and industrial upgrading in China and promote the balanced development of the three industries. In order to solve the predicament of China’s industrial security under the TPP, it is necessary to further maintain and develop the overseas free trade market so as to foster and enhance the capability of industrial innovation.