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汽车制造业的出口在中国货物贸易中占有重要的地位,汽车产品已经成为中国最具增长潜力的出口商品类别之一。出口二元边际分析方法,在异质性企业贸易理论的基础上为研究出口增长提供了新的视角。本文借鉴Hummels和Klenow(2005)的研究方法,将中国汽车制造业的出口进行边际分解,利用2003-2012年的微观贸易数据进行测度。结果发现,中国汽车制造业的出口增长主要依赖集约边际的增长,且在集约边际中数量边际的贡献较大。在数据分析的基础上,文中针对改善中国汽车制造业的出口增长模式提出多项政策建议。
Exports from automobile manufacturing occupy an important position in the trade of goods in China. Automotive products have become one of the most exportable commodity categories in China. Export binary marginal analysis method, based on the heterogeneous business trade theory provides a new perspective for the study of export growth. Based on the research methods of Hummels and Klenow (2005), this paper analyzes the marginal decomposition of China’s automobile manufacturing exports and makes use of the micro-trade data from 2003 to 2012. The result shows that the export growth of China’s auto industry depends mainly on the growth of the intensive marginalization, and the contribution of the quantitative marginalization in the intensive marginalization is larger. Based on the data analysis, the article made a number of policy recommendations aimed at improving the export growth model of China’s automobile manufacturing industry.