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论文把欧拉方程式和“有效”消费理论结合起来,利用中国的统计数据(1985—2005年)分析政府消费和公债发行对居民消费支出的影响。同时,考察政府收入和公债发行对政府消费支出的影响。实证分析的结果表明:(1)当期的政府消费支出对居民消费支出的影响较大(系数估计值为0.5左右);(2)当期的国内外公债发行对居民消费支出的影响较小(系数估计值为0.05左右,而且在统计上不显著),但是滞后一期的国内外公债发行对居民消费支出合计及其中的城镇居民消费支出的影响较大(系数估计值分别为0.17和0.27),这说明居民在某种程度上视政府公债为财富;(3)政府消费支出受政府财政收入的影响比较大,而受国内外公债发行的影响比较小(系数估计值分别为1和0.1左右)。根据实证分析的结果,可以得出一些政策建议。即,为了扩大居民消费支出、特别是农村居民的消费支出,可以通过政府消费支出的扩张来实现。由于政府消费支出主要以税收为财源,受预算的约束很大,所以一方面可以考虑开辟财源以增加财政(税收)收入,另一方面可以考虑在一定时期内扩大政府债务的发行,从而实现政府消费支出的适度扩张。
The essay combines the Euler formula with the “efficient” consumption theory and uses China’s statistics (1985-2005) to analyze the impact of government spending and public debt issuance on household consumer spending. At the same time, examine the impact of government revenue and government bonds on government spending. The results of empirical analysis show that: (1) The current government consumption expenditure has a greater impact on the household consumption expenditure (the coefficient is estimated at 0.5); (2) The current domestic and foreign public debt issuance has less impact on the household consumption expenditure The estimated value is about 0.05, and it is not statistically significant). However, the issuance of domestic and foreign public debt with lagged period has a greater impact on the total resident consumption expenditure and the urban residents’ consumption expenditure among them (the estimated coefficients are 0.17 and 0.27 respectively) This shows that the residents regard the government bonds as wealth to some extent; (3) The government consumption expenditure is greatly influenced by the government fiscal revenue, while the impact of the public debt issuance at home and abroad is relatively small (the coefficient estimates are respectively around 1 and 0.1) . According to the results of empirical analysis, we can draw some policy recommendations. That is, in order to expand resident consumption expenditures, especially rural residents’ consumption expenditures can be realized through the expansion of government consumption expenditures. Since government expenditures are mainly taxed as a source of income and greatly constrained by the budget, one can consider opening up financial resources to increase fiscal revenues, and on the other hand, consider expanding the issuance of government debts for a certain period of time in order to achieve government Moderate expansion of consumer spending.