本文回顾了过去一百年美国商品市场与股票市场变化之间的关联,发现商品市场的熊市通常对应着股票市场的牛市,其间的联系应该不完全出于偶然。考虑到商品正在转入熊市的背景和中国经济的现状,这一联系的经验值得借鉴。商品熊市和股票牛市高度相关我们研究了过去一百年(1913—2013年)大宗商品市场与美国标准普尔指数之间的关系。我们首先定义商品的牛熊区间,价格从底部到顶部是牛市,从顶部到底部是熊市。随后我们观察 This article reviews the connection between the U.S. commodity market and changes in the stock market over the past hundred years and finds that the bear market in commodity markets usually corresponds to the stock market bull market and the connection between them should not be entirely by accident. Given the background that commodities are moving into a bear market and the current status of China’s economy, the experience of this connection is worth learning from. Commodity Bear Market is highly correlated with the stock bull market We studied the relationship between the commodity market over the past century (1913-2013) and the S & P index in the United States. We first define the bullish and bear ranges for the commodity. The price is bullish from bottom to top, and bear from top to bottom. Then we observe