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“银元”(The silver dollar)是《经济学人》针对银发经济发明的一个词汇。在老龄化这个危机重重的阴影下,我们换个思路:中国“银元”在哪?有多大?本刊研究部专门启动了一项老龄化“危中之机”的调研,我们的调研发现:未来5年是重中之重。一方面,这5年是人口机会窗口中最好的时段,也是人口红利耗尽前最后的机会;另一方面,这5年是中国全面进入老龄化的关键时期。“危机亦良机”。中国要补的第一课是在意识上,必须从现在开始,在全社会建立起应对老龄化的意识。从“人口红利”到“长寿红利”。单纯把老年人口看成经济发展“成本”的做法早已过时,老龄化也可能创造“长寿红利”。“银发经济”现在是铜矿,5年后会慢慢变成金矿。随着建国后第二个生育高峰出生的人逐渐步入老年,中国老年产业将发生质的改变。中国老年产业正处于“尿布时代”。政府要承担起父母的职责,推动老年产业走向产业化、民营化和市场化。
The silver dollar is an economist’s term for the invention of silver hair economy. In the shadow of this crisis of aging, we change the way of thinking: Where is the “Silver Dollar” in China? The research department of this magazine has started an investigation on aging, “the crisis machine”, and our Research found that: the next five years is the most important. On the one hand, these five years are the best time in the window of population opportunities and the last chance before demographic dividend is exhausted. On the other hand, these five years are the critical period for China’s full access to aging. “Crisis also good opportunity ”. The first lesson that China needs to make up is that in terms of awareness, it is imperative to establish awareness of aging in the whole society from now on. From “Demographic dividend ” to “longevity bonus ”. Simply considering the elderly population as an economic development “cost” is out of date and aging may also create a “longevity bonus.” Silver economy is now a copper mine and will gradually become a gold mine in five years. With the birth of the second birth peak after the founding of the PRC, the elderly will gradually enter old age and the quality of the Chinese aged industries will change qualitatively. China’s aging industry is in the “diaper era.” The government should take on the responsibilities of parents and promote the industrialization, privatization and marketization of the aged industries.