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文章基于GTAP8构建MRIO模型,计算了中国和欧盟基于生产端和消费端的CO2排放量,以及中国和欧盟对外贸易隐含碳排放及行业分布,并采用LMDI方法将2004~2007年中欧双边贸易中隐含碳变化的影响因素分为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应。结果表明:中国基于生产端的CO2排放量明显高于消费端,欧盟则相反;中国是典型的隐含碳排放净出口国,欧盟则是典型的隐含碳排放净进口地区。2004~2007年,中国对欧盟出口隐含碳排放总量增加显著,其中出口规模的扩大是导致增加的主要原因,技术进步起着削减作用,结构效应总体为增加作用但程度很小;同期欧盟对中国出口隐含碳排放总量的增幅较小,其中规模效应起着增加的作用,而技术效应和结构效应则起着削减作用。
The article builds MRIO model based on GTAP8 and calculates the CO2 emissions of China and the EU based on the production side and the consumption side as well as the implicit carbon emissions and industry distribution of China and the EU in foreign trade and uses the LMDI method to divide the bilateral trade between China and the EU in 2004-2007 The influencing factors of carbon change are divided into scale effect, structural effect and technical effect. The results show that CO2 emissions on the production side are significantly higher in China than those on the consumer side, while the EU is the opposite. China is a typical net exporter of implicit carbon emissions while the EU is a typical net exporter of implicit carbon emissions. From 2004 to 2007, the total amount of China’s exports to the EU implied a significant increase in total carbon emissions, of which the expansion of export scale was the main reason for the increase. Technological advances played a reducing role while the overall effect of the structural effects was small but to a very small extent. In the same period, The increase in the total amount of hidden carbon emissions from exports to China is small, of which the scale effect plays an increasing role, while the technical and structural effects play a reducing role.