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本文分析美国、中国、日本、欧元区及英国等G20五个系统重要性经济体宏观政策溢出效应。研究表明,美元指数与大宗商品价格具有显著的负向关系,影响美元指数的美国量化宽松等货币政策将影响大宗商品价格。主要国际货币发行国基础货币总和与资本跨境流动具有显著的正向关系,美联储、欧洲央行等量化宽松政策对资本跨境流动尤其是流入新兴经济体的资本产生较强溢出效应。同时,发达经济体占据产业链高端而通过产业链条对国际贸易形成溢出效应。另一方面,中国经济通过总量扩张、外汇储备资产积累及生产链条等渠道对大宗商品价格、国际金融市场及国际贸易产生溢出效应。为此,各国应进一步加强国际协调,降低系统重要性经济体宏观经济政策负面溢出效应。
This article analyzes the macroeconomic spillover effects of the five G20-centric economies in the United States, China, Japan, the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. Research shows that there is a significant negative relationship between the dollar index and commodity prices, and monetary policy such as quantitative easing that affects the dollar index will affect the commodity prices. The total monetary base of major international currency issuers has a significant positive relationship with the cross-border capital flows. The quantitative easing policies such as the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have a strong spillover effect on cross-border capital flows, especially those flowing into emerging economies. At the same time, the developed economies occupy the high end of the industrial chain and spill over the international trade through the industrial chain. On the other hand, the Chinese economy has spillover effects on commodity prices, international financial markets and international trade through aggregate expansion, accumulation of foreign exchange reserve assets and production channels. To this end, all countries should further strengthen international coordination and reduce the negative spillover effect of macroeconomic policies in systemically important economies.