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猪肉价格是通货膨胀系数的主要组成部分,也是老百姓和政府最关心的先行指标之一。猪粮比是生猪出场价格与玉米批发价格的比,作为反映肉猪饲养盈亏的重要指标,是政府调节猪肉价格的主要依据。本文分析了中国各省份猪粮比空间分布特征以及从2000年到2012年之间的变化,发现北方猪粮比普遍高于南方,而且北方猪粮比的波动性普遍大于南方。进一步分析发现猪粮比的空间分布同玉米价格和养殖规模化的空间分布存在一定的相关性:玉米价格较高的省份,猪粮比相对较高;在玉米价格接近的省份中,养殖规模化程度较高的省份猪粮比较高。因此,建议各级政府在利用猪粮比作为指导肉猪饲养行业的科学指标时,要针对不同省份区别对待,随着时间移动还要调整盈亏点的设置和分析不同驱动因素的作用。
The price of pork is a major component of the inflation rate and one of the leading indicators that the people and the government are most concerned about. The ratio of pigs to pigs is the ratio of hogs’ appearance price to the wholesale price of corn. As an important indicator reflecting the profit and loss of pigs, it is the main basis for the government to adjust the pork prices. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the spatial distribution of the grain-to-grain ratio in China’s provinces and the changes from 2000 to 2012. The results show that the ratio of pigs to grain in the north is higher than that in the south, and the ratio of pigs to grains in the north is generally higher than that in the south. Further analysis found that the spatial distribution of grain-to-grain ratio was related to the spatial distribution of maize prices and the scale of farmed stocks: provinces with higher maize prices had a relatively higher ratio of pigs to grains; in the provinces where the prices of maize were close, A higher degree of pigs in the province is relatively high. Therefore, it is recommended that governments at all levels use the ratio of pig to grain as the scientific indicator to guide the hog farming industry to treat different provinces differently, adjust the setting of profit-loss points and analyze the role of different drivers over time.