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根据巴西卫生部提供的资料,评价了巴西的麻风流行趋势。借助Hewlett-PackardYI/0167-C计算器,用“最佳拟合曲线”计算出到2000年的估计发现率,在十进制的半对数纸上绘出趋势点,其连线近似一直线。1950～1968年的发现率每年平均下降3％,显然是由于防治的影响。1969～1987年发现率以每年6％的斜率上升,如维持这种趋势,到2000年发现率将是35.03/10万,将有66,600新病例。1984～1987发现率趋于稳定,东北大区每年平均增加10％,而南大区
Based on the information provided by the Brazilian Ministry of Health, the leprosy epidemic in Brazil was evaluated. With the Hewlett-PackardYI / 0167-C calculator, the “best fit curve” is used to calculate the estimated discovery rate for the year 2000, and the trend points are plotted on a semi-logarithmic decimal and the connection is approximately straight. The average decrease of 3% from 1950 to 1968 was apparently due to the impact of prevention and treatment. From 1969 to 1987, the discovery rate increased at a slope of 6% per annum. To maintain this trend, the detection rate in 2000 will be 35.03 / 100,000 with 66,600 new cases. The discovery rate tends to be stable from 1984 to 1987, with an average increase of 10% in Northeast China each year