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目的运用流感监测网络建立流感预警模型,通过预警减少流感暴发或流行。方法收集黑龙江省2011-2013年流感监测网络的监测数据,通过ARIMA运用流行病学研究方法计算建立黑龙江省流感流行预警数据库和预警模型。结果建立流感流行预警数据库和预警模型,基线最大值为2.75%,最小值为1.74%;上限最大值为3.30%,最小值为2.08%;预警线最大值在1月份,最小值在8月份。对2009年和2013年流感样病例(ILI)%流行曲线进行预警应用观察,流行趋势总体平稳,较接近于预警模型下限,全年未超过预警模型上限,未报告流感暴发疫情。模型提示流感流行关注的时间在第6周和第40周。2009年流感ILI%流行曲线明显超过警戒线,高峰出现在9-11月,与全年报告18起流感暴发实际月份相符。流感预警信息发布最佳时间在第33周。结论该流感预警模型有较强的灵敏性和特异性,其建立与应用,可为流感防控工作策略和防控措施提供科学依据。
Objective To establish an influenza early-warning model by using the influenza surveillance network and reduce the outbreak or epidemic of influenza by early warning. Methods The surveillance data of influenza surveillance network in Heilongjiang province from 2011 to 2013 were collected. The epidemic early warning database and early warning model of influenza in Heilongjiang province were calculated by using ARIMA method. Results The epidemic early warning database and early warning model were established. The maximum of baseline was 2.75% and the minimum was 1.74%. The upper limit was 3.30% and the minimum was 2.08%. The maximum of warning line was in January and the minimum was in August. In 2009 and 2013, the epidemic curve of influenza-like illness (ILI) was observed and applied to the epidemic. The epidemic trend was generally stable, close to the lower limit of the early warning model, and did not exceed the upper limit of the early warning model for the whole year. No outbreak of influenza was reported. The model suggests that the flu pandemic will be on week 6 and week 40. The 2009 influenza ILI% epidemic curve clearly exceeded the warning line and the peak appeared in September-November, which was in line with the actual reporting of the 18 influenza outbreaks in the full year. The best time to release flu warning information is the 33rd week. Conclusion The influenza early warning model has strong sensitivity and specificity. The establishment and application of the model can provide a scientific basis for influenza prevention and control strategies and prevention and control measures.