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借鉴Minot模型和补偿变量思想,本文构建了蔬菜价格波动的农村和城镇居民福利效应的省际面板数据模型,测算了蔬菜价格波动的农村和城镇居民短期福利效应和长期福利效应。通过比较分析主要得出以下几点结论:各省农村和城镇居民CR值呈下降趋势、农村居民PR值呈递增趋势,但存在较大的省际差异,且城镇居民CR值明显小于农村居民CR值;蔬菜生产价格变化影响着农村居民人均生产福利同方向变化,蔬菜零售价格变化影响着农村居民和城镇居民人均消费福利反方向变化,但蔬菜生产价格在农村居民人均总福利中仍占据主导作用;各省相同或相近的蔬菜价格变化引致的居民福利变化存在明显的省际差异;农村和城镇居民长期人均总福利没有明显优于短期人均总福利,且个别省份和个别年份存在短期人均总福利优于长期人均总福利的情况;农村居民与城镇居民消费福利变化趋势基本一致,但农村居民消费福利普遍优于城镇居民消费福利。结合2017年中央一号文件精神,应该进一步完善蔬菜价格市场信息传递功能、加强蔬菜供给调节机制、健全适时蔬菜消费补贴机制。
Based on the Minot model and the idea of compensation variables, this paper builds an inter-provincial panel data model of the welfare effects of vegetable prices in rural and urban areas, and estimates the short-term and long-term benefits of rural and urban residents with vegetable price fluctuations. The main conclusions drawn from the comparative analysis are as follows: The CR value of rural residents and urban residents in every province shows a downward trend, and the PR value of rural residents shows an increasing trend, but there is a large discrepancy between provinces. CR value of urban residents is obviously smaller than that of rural residents ; The change of vegetable production price affects the change of per capita production welfare of rural residents in the same direction; the change of vegetable retail price affects the anti-directional change of per capita consumption and welfare of rural residents and urban residents, but the vegetable production price still plays a dominant role in the per capita total welfare of rural residents; There are obvious inter-provincial differences in the changes of residents’ welfare caused by the same or similar vegetable prices in different provinces; the long-term per capita total welfare of rural and urban residents is not significantly better than the short-term total welfare, and the short-term per capita total welfare of individual provinces and individual years is superior to Long-term per capita total welfare situation; Consumption benefits of rural residents and urban residents trends are basically the same, but rural residents generally better than the consumer welfare of urban residents consumer welfare. In line with the documentary spirit of the No.1 Central Government in 2017, we should further improve the market information transmission function of vegetable prices, strengthen the regulatory mechanism of vegetable supply, and improve the timely subsidy mechanism for vegetable consumption.