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20世纪90年代以来智利经济表现良好,未曾发生严重的经济危机,受外部危机影响也较小,被视为拉美国家的样板。这主要得益于智利实施了逆周期性的、谨慎稳妥的、灵活高效的宏观经济政策,其财政保持平衡且管理高效,利率和汇率制度灵活自由,通胀幅度和金融资本流动受到制度约束。这有利于稳定市场预期,维持国际收支平衡,促进宏观经济稳定和经济增长。但近年来智利经济受外部需求下降影响而面临下行压力,宏观经济政策受到挑战:铜价下跌使财政收入减少,而刺激经济和改善民生的需求又要求不断增加财政支出,从而影响了财政平衡目标的实现;利率降低和货币贬值推高通胀,给货币政策带来两难;国际金融资本无序流动给金融市场带来新的风险。当前智利宏观经济政策面临挑战的根源在于产业结构和增长模式存在问题。未来应逐步改变依赖铜等初级产品出口的产业结构,开发新的出口产品,开辟新的国际市场,通过技术创新、人力资本提升等途径增加内生发展动力,以减少外部冲击对本国经济的影响。
Chile’s economy has performed well since the 1990s, has not had a serious economic crisis and is less affected by external crises and is regarded as a model for Latin American countries. This is mainly due to the implementation of counter-cyclical, prudent and flexible macroeconomic policies in Chile. The fiscal balance and efficient management, the flexible and free interest rate and exchange rate regime, and the inflation and financial capital flows are subject to institutional constraints. This will help stabilize market expectations, maintain the balance of payments, and promote macroeconomic stability and economic growth. However, in recent years, the Chilean economy has been under downward pressure due to the drop in external demand. Macroeconomic policies are challenged. The fall in copper prices has led to a decrease in fiscal revenue. The demand for stimulating the economy and improving people’s livelihood has also called for increasing fiscal expenditures, thereby affecting the fiscal balance. Realization; the lowering of interest rates and the devaluation of currency push up inflation, creating a dilemma for monetary policy; the disorderly flow of international financial capital has brought new risks to the financial markets. At present, the root causes of the challenges facing Chile’s macroeconomic policies lie in the existing problems in the industrial structure and growth mode. In the future, we should gradually change the industrial structure relying on the export of primary products such as copper, develop new export products and open up new international markets. We should increase the momentum for endogenous growth through technological innovation and human capital upgrading so as to reduce the impact of external shocks on our economy .