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2009年2月初,我国北方冬麦区遭受了数十年未遇的严重干旱。基于野外实地考察,判断本次干旱对冬小麦造成的实际影响比气象统计与遥感监测结果要轻,同时因纬度、地貌类型、微地貌和田间管理水平的不同而呈现出明显的区域差异。在此基础上,提出应在已有的旱灾致灾指标(气象干旱)基础上,综合考虑地带性、地貌、水库等孕灾环境指标和田间管理水平等灾害适应指标来构建冬小麦旱灾风险的综合评价指标体系。并以北方冬麦区为例,选取SPI、地貌类型、DEM和水库缓冲区等指标得到的旱灾综合风险等级与实际旱情存在较高的吻合性。研究可为高风险区的冬小麦旱灾风险防范提供理论依据和案例支撑。
In early February 2009, the winter wheat region in northern China suffered from severe drought that had not taken place in decades. Based on the field investigation, it is judged that the actual impact of drought on winter wheat is lighter than the result of meteorological statistics and remote sensing. At the same time, there are obvious regional differences due to different latitude, landform types, micro-topography and field management level. On the basis of this, it is suggested that a comprehensive assessment of the drought risk of winter wheat should be based on the existing indices of disaster-induced drought (meteorological drought) and comprehensively considering the indicators of disaster-prone environmental factors such as zonality, geomorphology, reservoirs and field management level Evaluation System. Taking northern winter wheat area as an example, the integrated drought risk level obtained by selecting indexes such as SPI, landform type, DEM and reservoir buffer area is in good agreement with the actual drought situation. The research can provide theoretical basis and case support for preventing winter wheat drought risk in high risk area.