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目的探讨手足口病发病趋势与气候温度的关系,为手足口病防控提供依据。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统、连云港气象局分别收集整理手足口病发病数据和气候温度数据,用R3.1.2分别作手足口病发病趋势图和气候温度变化图,对比研究两者之间的关系。结果手足口病发病趋势图呈现双峰,在第一峰出现之前,手足口病呈低水平发病;第一个峰起点出现的时间不一定,一般在外界环境平均温度达10℃以上时出现,在达到16℃左右时,手足口病发病呈直线上升,并在22周左右出现出现峰值,此时气候温度在24℃左右,但气候手足口病发病呈现下降趋势,在经过气候最高温度后达到终点;第一个峰的峰值远远大于第二个峰。结论手足口病第一峰一般在气候温度达到10℃以上出现,可以作为手足口病防控的一个参考标准。根据本文研究结果及相关文献得出假设:气候温度适合儿童进行室外活动时,接触肠道病毒的风险增高,手足口病发病增多;而若是气候温度不适合儿童活动时,则手足口病发病较少。
Objective To explore the relationship between the trend of hand-foot-mouth disease and climatic temperature and provide the basis for prevention and control of hand-foot-mouth disease. Methods From China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and Lianyungang Meteorological Bureau, the incidence data of hand-foot-mouth disease and climatic temperature data were collected and analyzed respectively. The trend of HFMD and the change of climate temperature were respectively analyzed by R3.1.2. relationship. Results The incidence of HFMD showed a double peak. Before the first peak appeared, HFMD showed a low level of incidence. The time of onset of the first peak was not certain, generally when the average ambient temperature reached 10 ℃ or above, At about 16 ℃, the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease rose linearly and peaked at about 22 weeks. At this time, the climate temperature was about 24 ℃, but the incidence of climate hand-foot-and-mouth disease showed a downward trend, reached after the highest temperature of the climate The end point; the peak of the first peak is much larger than the second peak. Conclusion The first peak of hand, foot and mouth disease generally occurs when the climatic temperature reaches above 10 ℃, which can be used as a reference standard for hand foot and mouth disease prevention and control. According to the results of this study and the related literature, it is concluded that climate temperature is suitable for outdoor activities of children, the risk of exposure to enterovirus is increased, and the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease is increased. However, if the climate temperature is not suitable for children’s activities, the incidence of hand- less.