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石油储备被公认为控制石油价格波动的主要手段,一般认为增加储备量就可以抑制油价上涨。但通过定性分析和协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验及脉冲分析发现:不同类型石油储备对价格的影响是不同的,储备相比汇率和供需变化及投机等因素对油价的影响力较弱。三种储备对油价基本没有预测作用,而油价仅对商业储备有较强的预测作用;不同储备在不同时间段与油价的关系不同,商业石油储备在2003年前对油价有抑制作用,近年来同战略石油储备一样,与油价呈现显著同向变化。因此,单纯依靠储备来调控油价是不现实的,但完全可以利用油价来引导储备。建议国家对战略储备定时定量采购,对商业储备则要通过不同的税收和投资激励政策来引导和管理。
Oil reserves are widely recognized as the main means of controlling the fluctuation of oil prices. Generally speaking, the increase of reserves can restrain rising oil prices. However, through qualitative analysis and co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test and pulse analysis, it is found that the impact of different types of oil reserves on prices is different. The impact of reserve ratio on exchange rate and supply and demand and speculation on oil prices Weak force. The three kinds of reserves have almost no predicting effect on the oil price, while the oil price only has a strong predictive effect on the commercial reserve. The different reserves have different relations with the oil price at different time periods. The commercial oil reserve has an inhibitory effect on the oil price until 2003. In recent years Like the strategic oil reserve, it shows significant changes in the same direction as the oil price. Therefore, it is unrealistic to rely solely on reserves to control oil prices, but it is entirely possible to use oil prices to guide reserves. It is suggested that the state regularly and quantitatively purchases strategic reserves, and that commercial reserves should be guided and managed through different taxation and investment incentives.