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基于前景理论方法,提出了一种语言风险型决策方法.首先,采用语言术语的形式对每一种风险状态下的各个选项进行评价;并据此构建语言决策矩阵.其次,将语言术语转化为三角模糊数;并将语言评价信息转化为数值型数据.然后,根据前景理论的思想,计算出概率权重函数与语言值函数,进而得到各选项的加权前景值.最后,根据加权前景值对各选项进行排序,并做出最优选择.该决策方法将决策者的心理偏好行为融入到实际决策过程中,并通过一个股票选择的应用实例验证了该方法的有效性.
Based on the theory of foreground, a language risk-based decision-making method is proposed.Firstly, each option in each risk state is evaluated in the form of linguistic terms, and then a language decision matrix is constructed.Secondly, linguistic terms are transformed into Triangular fuzzy number, and the language evaluation information into numerical data.Then, according to the theory of foreground theory, the probability weight function and linguistic value function are calculated, and then the weighted foreground value of each option is obtained.Finally, according to the weighted foreground value of each Option and make the best choice.The decision-making method integrates the decision maker’s psychological preference behavior into the actual decision-making process and verifies the effectiveness of the method through an application example of stock selection.