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导弹截获目标的概率是红外成像导弹的一项重要的设计指标。传统的目标截获概率通常通过统计方法得到,该方法需要建立导弹制导控制系统的详细数学模型,因此不适合在导弹总体方案设计阶段使用。针对传统方法的缺陷,通过分析影响红外成像导弹截获概率的主要误差源,从而建立了截获概率的数学模型,从理论分析角度给出了导弹截获概率的计算方法。仿真结果表明,建立的截获概率数学模型正确可信,计算的目标截获概率与传统统计方法结果相当,可以辅助进行各项误差的精度分配以及系统指标的设计,具有重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。
The probability that a missile intercepts a target is an important design guideline for infrared imaging missiles. The traditional target interception probability is usually obtained through statistical methods. This method requires the establishment of a detailed mathematical model of the missile guidance control system and is therefore not suitable for use in the overall missile design stage. Aiming at the shortcomings of the traditional methods, a mathematical model of the intercept probability is established by analyzing the main error sources that affect the interception probability of the infrared imaging missile. The calculation method of the missile interception probability is given from the theoretical analysis. The simulation results show that the established mathematical model of interception probability is correct and credible, and the calculated target interception probability is comparable with that of traditional statistical methods, which can assist in the accuracy assignment of various errors and design of system indexes, which has important theoretical significance and practical application value .