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本文对我国能源预測的初步結果表明,我国未来經济发展速度在相当程度上受到能源的制約。从能源资源的人平均儲量及其分布、能源运輸、能源利用效率、对环境的污染以及能源成本等几个方面看,在我国一定地区发展核能都是合理的与必要的。作者认为,核能在我国未来能源系統中的重要作用在于:一、作为缺能地区电力系統的基本負荷电站;二、作为巨大能源消費中心的清洁能源;三、作为增产石油与煤的气化液化的热源。本文还根据若干假設,对我国核能的中远期发展規模进行了初步預測。
The preliminary results of China’s energy forecast in this paper show that the speed of China’s future economic development is to a large extent constrained by energy. In view of the average reserves of people and their distribution of energy resources, energy transportation, energy utilization efficiency, environmental pollution and energy costs, it is reasonable and necessary to develop nuclear energy in certain areas of our country. The author believes that the important role of nuclear energy in China’s future energy system lies in: First, as the basic load power station in the power system in the area of impotence; Second, clean energy as a huge energy consumption center; Third, as a gasification and liquefaction The heat source. Based on a number of assumptions, this paper also makes a preliminary forecast of the long-term development of nuclear energy in China.