拥挤收费是改善城市交通的有效手段.对拥挤收费定价的研究方法之一,就是针对固定的出行量进行收费设计.由于出行量预测不确定的因素,应针对长期出行量预测不确定的情况,利用灵敏度分析的方法,对拥挤收费定价的问题进行研究.首先研究了出行者出行的广义费用,然后考虑出行者的出行决策及出行量预测不确定的因素,给出一个拥挤收费定价模型,为交通管理者提供理论依据. Congestion charging is an effective means to improve urban traffic.One of the research methods of pricing congestion pricing is to design a fixed fee-for-charge design.Because of the uncertainty of the amount of travel forecast, we should aim at the uncertainty of long- This paper studies the problem of congestion pricing by using the sensitivity analysis method.Firstly, the generalized cost of traveler’s travel is studied, and then the trip decision of the traveler and the uncertain forecast of the travel volume are taken into account, and a congestion pricing model is given Traffic managers to provide a theoretical basis.