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本文以新疆2006~2011年的高新技术产业进出口总额为样本数据,应用灰色系统理论,建立新疆高新技术产业进出口总额的GM(1,1)预测模型,对新疆2013~2020年期间高新术产业进出口总额进行预测讨论,预测结果表明:在未来几年里,新疆高新技术产业进出口总额仍呈稳步上升的趋势,年均增长率为17.69%,与“十一五”期间22.2%相比,上升的速度明显变缓。由于经检验模型的预测精度较好,其预测结果可信,可为涉及新疆高新技术产业进出口总额的相关问题决策提供参考。
In this paper, the total amount of high-tech industry in Xinjiang from 2006 to 2011 as sample data, the application of gray system theory to establish the total import and export of high-tech industries in Xinjiang GM (1,1) forecasting model for Xinjiang during 2013-2020 high-tech The forecast of the total import and export of the industry shows that: in the next few years, the total import and export volume of high-tech industries in Xinjiang will continue to increase steadily, with an average annual growth rate of 17.69%. Compared with 22.2 during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, % Compared to the rate of increase significantly slowed. Due to the better prediction accuracy of the tested model and the credible result of the forecast, it can provide reference for the decision-making on the related issues concerning the total import and export of high-tech industries in Xinjiang.