论文部分内容阅读
本文在考虑中国长期存在贸易顺差并持有大量外国债券的特征的基础上,建立了一个中等规模的DSGE模型并对模型做了贝叶斯估计,研究国内外冲击对中国经济波动的影响以及不同外国债券持有规模对各冲击效应的影响,并从福利角度测算了最优外国债券持有规模。研究结果显示:(1)长期来看,中国经济波动受国外经济形势的直接影响有限,但受贸易相关冲击的影响较大,而且随着持有外国债券规模的增加,后者的影响加大。(2)中短期来看,持有外国债券的规模主要影响永久性技术冲击和国外冲击效应,对其他国内冲击效应的影响有限;(3)从社会福利角度,中国存在超额持有外国债券的问题。
Based on the long-term trade surplus in China and the characteristics of holding a large number of foreign bonds, this paper establishes a medium-sized DSGE model and Bayesian estimation of the model to study the impact of domestic and foreign shocks on China’s economic fluctuations and differences The impact of the size of foreign bond holdings on each impact and the size of the optimal foreign bond holdings from a welfare perspective. The results of the study show that: (1) In the long run, China’s economic fluctuation is directly affected by the foreign economic situation but limited by trade-related shocks. As the size of foreign-bond holdings increases, the impact of the latter increases . (2) In the short to medium term, the scale of holding foreign bonds mainly affects permanent technical shocks and foreign shocks, which have limited impact on other domestic shocks. (3) From the perspective of social welfare, there is an excess of foreign bonds in China problem.