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[目的]有关胃炎发病情况的时间序列分析研究较少,通过建立数学模型,研究胃炎发病的相关情况,可以做到及时预防。[方法]通过SPSS软件对甘肃张家川地区胃炎发病病例监测登记资料进行统计分析,同时进行时间序列模型拟合,观察疾病发展趋势。[结果]得到最优时间序列模型ARIMA(1,1,1)及其数学表达式Yt=0.843Yt-1+0.157Yt-2+at-0.558at-1并进行了实际值与预测值比较。[结论]研究胃炎发病的相关情况,有重点地进行健康防治工作,有效地降低胃炎对人类的危害,从而保障了人类的生活品质。
[Objective] The research on the time series analysis of the incidence of gastritis is few. By establishing the mathematical model and studying the related situation of gastritis, it can be prevented timely. [Methods] The SPSS software was used to carry out statistical analysis of monitoring registration data of gastritis cases in Zhangjiachuan area of Gansu province. At the same time, time series model fitting was performed to observe the trend of disease development. [Result] The optimal time series model ARIMA (1,1,1) and its mathematical expression Yt = 0.843Yt-1 + 0.157Yt-2 + at-0.558at-1 were obtained and the actual values and the predicted values were compared. [Conclusion] The study of gastritis related to the situation, focusing on health prevention and control work, effectively reduce the harm of gastritis on humans, thus protecting the quality of human life.