水利工程的漫坝风险分析理论为解决北方地区水库的防洪与兴利矛盾奠定了理论基础,成为水利工程管理科学中的重要组成部分。这里正是利用这一理论,分析研究了水库的漫坝风险,综合应用随机水文学、随机水力学等学科知识,全面考虑洪水、风浪、库容和泄水能力的不确定性,建立了土坝对抗洪水和风浪联合作用下的漫坝风险理论,并提出了风险取值标准。 The theory of flood control risk analysis of hydraulic engineering has laid a theoretical foundation for solving the contradiction between flood control and prosperousness in reservoirs in northern China and has become an important part of water conservancy project management science. Here is the use of this theory to analyze and study the risk of dam overtopping, integrating the disciplines of stochastic hydrology and stochastic hydrodynamics, taking into account the uncertainties of flood, storms, storage capacity and drainage capacity, and established an earth dam Combating flood and wind and waves combined effect of the theory of diffuse dam, and put forward the value of risk criteria.