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目的为进一步提高传染病自动预警填报的质量,及时发现暴发疫情,把暴发疫情控制在萌芽状态,为领导决策提供科学的依据。方法采用描述性统计方法,对2008～2010年在传染病自动预警信息系统中收到的所有奉贤区的预警信号进行分析。结果 2008年4月21日～2010年12月31日奉贤区共有预警信息1384条,覆盖了13个病种。预警信号占前5位的分别是流行性腮腺炎、痢疾、麻疹、水痘、猩红热,占总预警信号的82.37%。预警信号出现高峰在4-9月份,占总预警信号的70.30%,疑似事件者有57起,阳性率为4.12%。预警信息热点区域平均覆盖发病乡镇点数为1.98个乡镇,热点区域内平均病例观测数为7.68例。结论预警信息系统能在较短的时间里发现暴发疫情,灵敏度较高但有效性欠佳,还需要进一步完善。
Objective To further improve the quality of automatic warning and reporting of infectious diseases, detect the outbreak in time and control the outbreak in the bud, providing a scientific basis for decision-making of leaders. Methods Descriptive statistics were used to analyze all the early warning signals received in Fengxian District from 2008 to 2010 in the automatic warning information system for infectious diseases. Results April 21, 2008 ~ December 31, 2010 Fengxian District, a total of 1384 early warning information, covering 13 diseases. The top five warning signals are mumps, dysentery, measles, chickenpox and scarlet fever, accounting for 82.37% of the total early warning signal. The peak of early warning signal appeared in the period from April to September, accounting for 70.30% of the total early warning signal and 57 cases of suspected event, the positive rate was 4.12%. The hot spots in the early warning information area cover an average of 1.98 townships and townships in terms of incidence, and the average number of cases in hot spots is 7.68. Conclusion The early warning information system can detect the outbreak in a relatively short period of time, with high sensitivity but poor validity, which needs to be further improved.