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采用全球分区、带历史震例总结对比方法,研究近代(1890年后)发生的103次8级以上地震,约占全部地震发生数的0.5。选择在震前几年强震活跃过程中出现率较高的10项特征,作为8级地震中期预测的经验性依据,统称为“地震活动图像异常”。它们可能反映主震破裂区及附近中短期阶段应变释放的演化过程,有一定的构造物理背景。预测全球2009年7月至2015年8级地震可能发生地段,共5处危险区和9处注意监视区。实际对应结果是:在其中4处危险区内发生6次8级以上地震(有两次双震);在3处注意监视区内发生4次8级以上地震。预测时段内全球也只发生这11次8级以上地震。虚报的注意区中有6处都在大陆内部,预测喜马拉雅带中段及太平洋周边发生的10次8级以上地震,获得较好对应,可供大地震趋势预测参考。
Using the method of global zoning and historical comparison of seismic cases, 103 earthquakes of magnitude 8 or above occurred in modern times (after 1890), accounting for about 0.5 of all earthquakes. The 10 features that have a high occurrence rate during the strong earthquakes in the past few years prior to the earthquake are selected as the empirical basis for the medium-term prediction of the M 8 earthquakes and are collectively referred to as the “seismic anomalies”. They may reflect the evolution of strain release in the middle and short-term stages of the main shock rupture zone and have some tectonic and physical backgrounds. Predict the possible earthquakes in the global magnitude 8 earthquake from July 2009 to 2015, with 5 danger zones and 9 monitoring zones. The actual corresponding results are as follows: 6 earthquakes of magnitude 8 or above (with double earthquakes) occurred in 4 of the 4 dangerous areas; and earthquakes of magnitude 8 or above occurred 4 times in 3 areas. In the forecast period, there are only 11 earthquakes of magnitude 8 or above in the world. Six of the false noticed areas are in the interior of the continent. It is predicted that more than 10 earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occur in the middle of the Himalayas and the Pacific Ocean, and they are well matched for the prediction of major earthquake trends.