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借助2012年翘尾之势,2013年我国生猪行情迎来开门红,但受生猪产能持续过剩、宏观经济增速缓慢及肉类消费疲软的多重制约,春节后猪价便一路下滑直至亏损,跌速创近十年之快,令多数压栏待涨的养户叫苦不迭。同时,上海死猪及H7N9突发事件再次加剧了肉类消费的低迷和猪肉供过于求的状态。6月末,得益于国家冻肉收储及端午节效应的叠加提振,生猪养殖终于摆脱近3个月的亏损期,步入微利期。然而,代表供给能力的能繁母猪存栏量持续高位,或将延长本轮周期触底时间,下半年猪价能否就此步入上行通道再次成为人们关注的焦点。
With hikes in 2012, the domestic pig market in 2013 ushered in a good start. However, due to the persistent restriction of pig production capacity, slow macroeconomic growth and weak meat consumption, the price of pork fell all the way down to the point of loss and declines after the Spring Festival Nearly a decade of fast, so most of the pressure to be up for the families complain endlessly. Meanwhile, Shanghai dead pigs and H7N9 emergencies once again exacerbated the downturn in meat consumption and pork oversupply. By the end of June, thanks to the accumulation of national frozen meat and the combined effect of Dragon Boat Festival, pig farming finally got rid of the loss period of nearly 3 months and entered a slight profit period. However, the number of sow herds that represent supply capacity has remained high, or the time to bottom of the current cycle will be extended. Whether pork prices can enter the ascent channel in the second half of the year once again becomes the focus of attention.