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在胡景北(2008)理论模型基础上,通过区分绝对和相对剩余劳动力,构建了城镇化、农村劳动力转移和农产品价格关系的数理分析框架,证明了给定农业生产技术及农产品需求刚性,绝对剩余劳动力向城镇的转移并不会影响农产品产量和价格,而当农村只剩相对剩余劳动力时,则务农人口继续向城镇转移将减少农产品供给并导致农产品价格上涨。以总农产品、劳动密集型农产品对上述关系进行的经验检验验证了以上结论。
Based on the theoretical model of Hu Jingbei (2008), a mathematical analysis framework is established for the relationship between urbanization, rural labor transfer and agricultural product price by distinguishing between absolute and relative surplus labor force. It is proved that given the agricultural production technology and the rigid demand of agricultural products, The transfer of surplus labor to cities and towns does not affect output and prices of agricultural products. However, when there is only surplus relative labor in rural areas, the continued migration of rural population to cities and towns will reduce the supply of agricultural products and cause the price of agricultural products to rise. The above conclusion is verified by empirical tests of the above relations with total agricultural products and labor-intensive agricultural products.