论文部分内容阅读
目的探索手足口病发病与气象因素的相关性。方法按月整理2005～2010年间手足口病发病数及对应月份的气象数据。结果 4～7月为长宁区手足口病发病高峰。进行手足口病月发病数和气象因素的相关分析,结果发现月发病数与平均温度、最低温度、最高温度、降雨日、蒸发量的相关性有统计学显著性,与日照时间、相对湿度、降雨量的相关性无统计学显著性。当月气温≥20℃(OR=13.32,95%CI=1.587～111.793),手足口病高发(≥50例/月)的风险加大。结论手足口病发病和部分气象因素存在相关性。使用气象因素如平均气温等进行手足口病疫情的预测具有一定的价值。
Objective To explore the correlation between the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors. Methods The monthly incidences of hand-foot-mouth disease and corresponding monthly meteorological data were collected from 2005 to 2010. Results From April to July, it was the peak of HFMD in Changning District. The correlation analysis between monthly incidence of HFMD and meteorological factors showed that the correlation between monthly incidence and average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainfall day and evaporation was statistically significant, and sunshine time, relative humidity, The correlation of rainfall is not statistically significant. When the temperature of the month was ≥20 ℃ (OR = 13.32, 95% CI = 1.587 ~ 111.793), the risk of hand-foot-mouth disease was high (≥50 cases / month). Conclusion The incidence of HFMD is correlated with some meteorological factors. The use of meteorological factors such as average temperature for the prediction of HFMD epidemic has some value.