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利用深沪两市95年至2002年A股公司的数据,检验了在国外业绩变化规律研究中得到验证并被普遍接受的均值回归假说.均值回归假说是基于成熟市场经济条件下的竞争机制,中国的上市公司由于特殊制度背景,业绩的变化并不仅受竞争机制的影响.检验结果表明,中国上市公司业绩变化并不符合均值回归假说,存在业绩长期高于平均水平的公司.业绩高于平均水平的公司业绩一旦下滑到平均水平以下,就长期低于平均水平.这些结果与上市公司为融资而进行的盈余管理有密切关系,因此中国A股公司业绩变化规律的研究必须考虑中国特有的制度因素的影响.
Using the data of A-share companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai from 1995 to 2002, we test the mean-return hypothesis that is validated and universally accepted in the study of the change of performance in foreign countries.The mean-return hypothesis is based on the competitive mechanism in the mature market economy, China’s listed companies due to the special institutional background, the performance change is not only affected by the competition mechanism.The test results show that the performance of Chinese listed companies does not meet the return of the average regression hypothesis, there are long-term above average performance of the company performance is higher than the average Once the performance of a horizontal company falls below the average level, its long-term sub-average performance is closely related to the earnings management of listed companies for financing. Therefore, the research on the performance changes of A-share companies in China must consider the unique Chinese system The impact of factors.