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国际产能合作是中国与“一带一路”沿线国家互利合作的有效途径。波罗的海沿线国家已建成产业链格局,中国与沿线各国均存在不同程度的互补产业和竞争产业。本文运用CGE模型对中国与波罗的海沿线国家进行了不同模拟情境下的产能合作前瞻性分析。结果表明,“丝绸之路经济带”波罗的海方向国际产能合作将显著拉动中国与波罗的海沿线国家的经济增长、进出口总额,提高各国民众的福利水平,改善各国贸易条件;在与中国进行国际产能合作中,波罗的海沿线国家贸易顺差将随合作的深入而扩大,而中国会产生规模越来越大的贸易逆差,但中国的贸易条件将得到明显改善;开展国际产能合作将进一步完善波罗的海地区的产业链架构。
International capacity-building cooperation is an effective way for mutually beneficial cooperation between China and countries along the “Belt and a Road”. Countries along the Baltic Sea have established an industrial chain, and there are varying degrees of complementary industries and competitive industries in China and other countries along the line. This paper uses the CGE model to prospectively analyze the capacity cooperation between China and the countries along the Baltic Sea in different simulated scenarios. The results show that the international capacity cooperation in the direction of the Baltic Sea in the “Silk Road Economic Belt” will significantly boost the economic growth, the total volume of imports and exports of China and the Baltic countries, raise the welfare level of all countries and improve the terms of trade for all countries. In international cooperation with China, In capacity cooperation, the trade surplus along the Baltic Sea will expand with the deepening of cooperation and China will have an increasingly larger trade deficit, but China’s terms of trade will be significantly improved. International capacity-building cooperation will further improve the development of the Baltic Sea region Industry chain structure.